Area Forecast Discussion
231
FXUS63 KLSX 271035
AFDLSX
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
435 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A brief "warm-up" will last today and tomorrow. Portions of
southeast Missouri may see high temperatures at or above freezing
each day.
- Dangerously cold conditions are expected again late this week
into this weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 145 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2026
Low-level southwest winds have become established in much of the
Midwest, and warmer air is advecting into the area as a result.
Because of this, we`ve been seeing steady if not rising temperatures
this morning, and the coldest wind chills have already passed
despite the early hour. The warmer air will be much more
noticeable this afternoon as highs climb into the 20s and 30s
from north to south. A small area of southeast Missouri may even
see temperatures reach or exceed freezing with the HREF giving a
30-60% chance of this occurring south of Farmington.
A cold front will move through the CWA this morning, ushering in
another round of cold air. This airmass won`t be nearly as brutal as
what we`ve seen over the past several nights. Tonight will be a few
degrees colder than this morning as a result, but incoming surface
high pressure will keep winds dampened and prevent Advisory level
wind chills. In fact, for most locations Wednesday will be even
warmer than today in spite of the cold front. The potential for
highs of 32+ degrees increases to 40-70% in all of Missouri south of
I-70.
Jaja
&&
.LONG TERM... (Tuesday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 145 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2026
Another Arctic airmass is forecast to overtake the region late in
the week. Although the cold is pretty solidly centered in the
Thursday to Saturday timeframe, the coldest conditions will depend
on the exact timing and track of the associated surface high.
Ensembles show an anomalously strong surface high, peaking at
1046+ mb/>99th percentile of climatology with 850 mb temperatures
dropping to near -20C/
NWS LSX Office Area Forecast Discussion