Ed's Weather Station

Ed's Weather Station
Located south of Fulton, MO
Lat. 38.75234 N
Lon. 91.96758 W
Elevation 787 ft

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Area Forecast Discussion

FXUS63 KLSX 141128

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
628 AM CDT Fri May 14 2021

.SHORT TERM... (Through Saturday Afternoon) Issued at 329 AM CDT
Fri May 14 2021

Weak northwest upper level flow is in place across the CONUS with
a handful of embedded shortwaves. This general pattern will remain
in place through Saturday, shunting surface high pressure from the
Midwest into the Southeast US and allowing a weak surface low to
gradually develop into the lee of the Rockies. Between these surface
features, southerly low level flow will continue to advect warm and
increasingly moist air into the central portion of the country
through the weekend.

The primary feature of interest the next few days will be the
nocturnal low level jet. Last night, the LLJ initiated an MCS over
the High Plains, which is now moving into eastern KS. This
convection will continue to dissipate as it encounters
increasingly dry air as it approaches the Mississippi Valley. With
that, precip chances will be rather low today, though we`ll
likely see increasing cloud coverage as the MCS decays.

The low level jet will be a bit further east tonight, kicking off
another round of convection from central KS to perhaps as far
northeast as NW MO. This convection is again expected to grow
upscale and push east overnight, and then gradually decay as it
encounters drier, more stable air on Saturday morning. After
today`s return flow, we should have enough moisture to sustain at
least isolated showers in our west and north beginning on Saturday
morning. Continued warm moist advection may be enough to continue
isolated/scattered showers through the day Saturday, and nearly
every piece of guidance shows at least light QPF somewhere in the
CWA. However with no clear forcing, most precipitation is expected
to be generally be light and intermittent on Saturday, with the
best chances across Missouri where moisture will be a bit deeper.


.LONG TERM...  (Saturday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 329 AM CDT Fri May 14 2021

As we move into Saturday afternoon and evening, guidance continues
to highlight a cold pool/outflow boundary from tonight`s Plains convection
laying out west-to-east somewhere across western Missouri. This boundary
will serve as a focus for convection beginning on Saturday afternoon,
which should gradually push northeast overnight and into Sunday as the
low level jet kicks back in. Unfortunately confidence on the location
of this boundary is fairly low as it`s dependent on tonight`s convection,
whose evolution difficult to forecast this far out. Nonetheless, both
the GEFS and ECMWF ensembles show a high chance for a band of precipitation
somewhere between the I-70 corridor and the MO/AR border from Saturday
night into Sunday. While I`m fairly confident that there will be a
band of precip along this boundary at some point from Saturday night
through Sunday, I`m not so certain when and where the best chance
for rain will occur. To the south of the boundary, precipitable
water around 1.5" will open the door for at least localized heavy
rainfall with embedded thunderstorms associated with weak

The forecast remains fairly messy from Sunday night into Monday as
we`ll be dealing not only with ongoing convection across our region,
but also even more upstream warm sector convection. Despite these
uncertainties, precip chances remain quite high into Monday thanks
to strong warm moist advection on the nose of the low level jet on
Sunday night and what will likely be a number of cold pools and
boundaries from the Plains into the Midwest. Unfortunately it`s
again difficult to determine exactly when or where precipitation
is the most likely given the uncertainty associated forecasting
weakly forced convection.

As we move into the mid and late week period, a broad trough will
slowly take hold across the western CONUS with a ridge across the
eastern US. At the surface, we`ll remain in southerly flow between
high pressure out east and low pressure to our west. This will set
the stage for multiple rounds of precipitation through the forecast
period, though once again, this weakly forced pattern makes it
difficult to determine when or where precipitation will occur.
Despite generally wet and cloudy conditions, the continued
southerly flow should help temperatures climb back above normal.



.AVIATION...  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 613 AM CDT Fri May 14 2021

VFR conditions will persist through the TAF period as high
pressure slides to the east of the region. This will allow winds
to turn to the south this morning and remain out of the south
through the period. High and mid clouds are expected to filter
into the region from the northwest this morning and we may even
see some virga or perhaps some sprinkles at UIN this afternoon.
The chance for any precipitation will fall off this evening before
picking up in the early morning hours as an area of showers moves
into the region from the west. These showers will primarily
impact COU and UIN during the TAF period, but they will be fairly
scattered so have gone with just VCSH for the time being.






NWS LSX Office Area Forecast Discussion