Ed's Weather Station

Ed's Weather Station
Located south of Fulton, MO
Lat. 38.75234 N
Lon. 91.96758 W
Elevation 787 ft

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Area Forecast Discussion

FXUS63 KLSX 280434

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
1034 PM CST Sat Nov 27 2021

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late Sunday Night)
Issued at 132 PM CST Sat Nov 27 2021

A shortwave embedded in NW upper flow dropped into the Northern
Plains this morning and has drifted into the Upper Midwest this
afternoon. The shortwave is reflected in the lower levels by a
low currently over southern Wisconsin, with a wing of strong warm
air advection extending southeast and a cold front trailing back
to the southwest. The WAA moved through the Mid Mississippi Valley
overnight and is largely responsible for the mild temperatures
this afternoon. Early this afternoon, the cold front had moved
into northern Missouri and will sweep through the forecast area
tonight. Moisture is rather limited ahead of the front and guidance
remains in consensus that this will be a dry fropa. Deep northwest
flow in the wake of the front will keep dry and cool air flowing
into the region through tomorrow. Tonight`s lows will only drop to
around normal given the the mild conditions this afternoon, and
tomorrow`s highs will likewise be around normal as the sunny
skies and weak cold air advection counteract one another.


.LONG TERM...  (Monday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 132 PM CST Sat Nov 27 2021

Yet another shortwave will move through the northwest upper flow
from Sunday night into Monday, this time even further north from
the forecast area. Like today`s system, this clipper will push a
north-south oriented wing of warm air advection through the
Midwest, swinging temperatures right back to 10-15 degrees above
normal on Monday. By Tuesday, the cold front trailing the second
clipper will drop into the region, though due to poor model
consensus on frontal progression, it`s still not yet clear whether
this front will reach our CWA. If the front doesn`t push into our
area, Tuesday`s temperatures will remain well above normal and
will likely push a few ticks warmer than what`s currently
forecast. Should the front make it this far south, the dry
atmosphere will very likely preclude any precipitation and the
arrival of the front would depress Tuesday`s highs a bit back
toward normal.

It appears likely that the train of shortwaves embedded in NW flow
will keep rolling on Wednesday and Thursday, though model consensus
on wave timing and placement is poor. These differences, coupled
with questions about Tuesday`s frontal evolution, keep the mid-week
forecast a bit uncertain. This is highlighted by increasing spread
of forecast temperatures within the NBM, with an inner quartile
range around 10 degrees on Wednesday and Thursday. Despite this
spread, it does appear that at least mild temperatures are likely
given that even the 25th percentile of the NBM is nearly 15 degrees
above normal by Thursday. The precipitation forecast is more
certain, as rain still appears unlikely through at least Thursday
due to continued dry air advection on W/NW winds through much of
the troposhpere.

Unsurprisingly, forecast confidence drops further as we move into
next weekend. Previous model runs had been advertising a robust
storm system moving through the region in this time frame, but the
latest suite of guidance has pushed the jet and storm track
further north. This would keep the mild temperatures in place even
longer, but given all of the uncertainty in the forecast to this
point, it`s difficult to hang your hat on any forecast this far



.AVIATION...  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1029 PM CST Sat Nov 27 2021

VFR flight conditions will prevail through Sunday. A cold front is
moving through the forecast area at this time. The front is
turning the wind from the west-southwest to the northwest as it
passes. Northwest flow will persist through the daytime Sunday,
then back to the south-southwest for most of the area Sunday






NWS LSX Office Area Forecast Discussion