Ed's Weather Station

Ed's Weather Station
Located south of Fulton, MO
Lat. 38.75234 N
Lon. 91.96758 W
Elevation 787 ft

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Area Forecast Discussion

FXUS63 KLSX 051115

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
515 AM CST Mon Dec 5 2022

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 430 AM CST Mon Dec 5 2022

While we can expect a mostly dry and mild day today for most areas,
albeit with some cloud cover and perhaps a few sprinkles, a damp and
gloomy day can be expected Tuesday thanks to a round of very light
rain and/or drizzle.

As of early this morning, the mid-Mississippi Valley region remains
locked in a zonal upper flow pattern, with only minor changes from
the day before. However, modest southerly low level flow has
persisted, and as a result, a warmer, more humid airmass is in the
process of spreading into the region from the south. In fact, both
temperatures and dewpoints have slowly risen through the night in
parts of the area through the night, and a broad stratus shield has
blanketed much of the region. This trend is expected to persist
through daylight hours, perhaps with some periodic breaks in cloud
cover, and as a result we can expect temperatures to climb to the
upper 40s to mid 50s. This warming trend will be due almost entirely
to warm air advection, as cloud clover will be difficult to lose
completely. Meanwhile, a few sprinkles will also be possible at
times, but the forecast trend established yesterday has been
maintained in this forecast package, and most areas are expected to
remain dry through at least daylight hours.

Later this evening, a weak and shallow cold front will sweep
southward through the area, and stall somewhere across southern
Missouri by early Tuesday morning. This may squeeze out another bout
of very light showers or sprinkles, but more widespread
precipitation is expected to hold off until later in the day. This
is because a weak surface low expected to move northeastward through
the area along the stalled frontal boundary Tuesday afternoon, and
as it does so, a modest LLJ will overrun the shallow layer cool air
and provide a bit of isentropic ascent. This weak lift combined with
moistening of the lower levels should provide plenty of support for
widespread very light rain, which may not amount to much more than a
vigorous round of drizzle. While confidence is increasing that this
rain will occur, total accumulations will be very light, and totals
may not exceed 1/10th of an inch in many places. As such, expect to
see a damp and gloomy Tuesday, but without the standing water on
roads. Temperatures will likely be a bit variable, with a
continuation of slightly above normal values across the Ozarks and
southern Illinois, but slightly cooler values farther north thanks
to the cold front.


.LONG TERM...  (Tuesday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 430 AM CST Mon Dec 5 2022

The primary focus during the long term period continues to be on the
increasing likelihood of widespread rainfall late Wednesday through
early Thursday, with perhaps some additional rain potential later in
the weekend.

By early Wednesday, the previously mentioned surface low is expected
to move off to the east, and upper level flow will have turned
slightly to the southwest. A weak reinforcing cold front will also
move into the area behind the departing low, along with a drier
airmass that should put an end to the light rain by early Wednesday
morning, at least temporarily.

Farther to the south, though, increasing convergence and warm air
advection along the stalled frontal boundary is expected to develop
throughout the day Wednesday. When coupled with an increasingly
humid and also modestly unstable airmass, precipitation and even
perhaps some convection is expected to blossom to our south
throughout the day, and may even spread northward into the Ozarks by
the afternoon. There remains a bit of uncertainty regarding the
timing of this wave and whether any of this will reach far enough
north before stronger forcing arrives from the west later in the

The latter will occur as a progressive shortwave and leading surface
low traverses the central plains and begins to pull the stalled
frontal boundary northward as a warm front late Wednesday through
Thursday. Not only this, but the LLJ and isentropic ascent will
increase markedly during this time period, providing additional lift
and also advecting an anomalously warm airmass northward. Upper
level forcing will also increase as the trough approaches, and all
of these factors will combine to spread widespread rainfall into
almost the entire area Wednesday night through at least mid-day
Thursday, and possibly later as well. While there remains some
timing and accumulation variability among members, confidence has
increased such that widespread rainfall is a near certainty at
this point. Not only this, but considering the progressive nature
of the forcing, and the fact that most of the precipitation along
the boundary on Wednesday will occur to our south, it appears even
less likely that amounts will be heavy enough for flooding to
become a concern. Not only this, but instability will be rather
weak, and while some convection will be possible along with a few
rumbles of thunder, rain rates likely won`t be particularly high.

What is most uncertain at this point is how long precipitation will
last. At some point Thursday, a dry slot is expected to encroach
upon the area, which could scour out a lot of the moisture with the
exception of the lowest levels, and limit precipitation rates.
However, precipitation chances are not likely to completely end
until the surface low finally ejects to the east of the area, and
this may not fully happen until Friday morning. One final last gasp
of wraparound precipitation will be possible around then, with even
a very small chance for some wintry precipitation to mix in across
northern areas, but confidence remains very low that this will
occur. Keep in mind that while some of these details are becoming
more clear, this remains a full 5 days in the future, and much
remains unresolved. Ensemble temperature and precipitation spreads
remain wide enough that it`s still unclear whether or not we can get
enough overlap of cold air and precipitation for this to occur.

Precipitation chances the remainder of the day Friday continue to
diminish, but forecast certainty beyond this point remains low.
Guidance continues to suggest that an active flow pattern will
persist, and another round of precipitation is likely at some point
later in the weekend or even early next week, along with a modest
cooling trend behind Friday`s departing low. However, ensemble
variability increases significantly beyond Friday, so timing details
of any additional precipitation remain nebulous.



.AVIATION...  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 510 AM CST Mon Dec 5 2022

Widespread MVFR stratus continues to impact local terminals at the
start of the 12Z period, and will likely persist for several hours
this morning before thinning out a bit during the late morning
and afternoon. While this is not a certainty, VFR conditions will
likely return at least briefly during this time.

Later in the evening, a weak cold front will move through the
area, and additional stratus will begin to redevelop. MVFR
ceilings are likely to return, with IFR ceilings possible at times
near the end of the period. Meanwhile, some drizzle or light rain
is likely beyond 12Z, and will continue much of the day at most
terminals. For the most part, this remains just beyond the 12Z TAF
period with the exception of STL (due to their 30 hour TAF cycle).






NWS LSX Office Area Forecast Discussion