Ed's Weather Station

Ed's Weather Station
Located south of Fulton, MO
Lat. 38.75234 N
Lon. 91.96758 W
Elevation 787 ft

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Kingdom City
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Holts Summit

Area Forecast Discussion

FXUS63 KLSX 102256

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
556 PM CDT Wed Aug 10 2022

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late Thursday Night)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Wed Aug 10 2022

Upper level ridging is in place over the western CONUS with
troughing in the eastern portion of the country. Although the
Midwest is between these two features, the dominant flow is in the
Great Lakes region, keeping our region out of the way of any upper
level perturbations. Surface high pressure and dry air aloft are
building into the Mid-Mississippi Valley behind yesterday`s frontal
passage. The surface high pressure is dominating the sensible
weather in the region. Tonight, the resulting light winds and clear
skies will allow us to cool up to 10 degrees below normal in
portions of the CWA.

A backdoor cold front is due to enter the region late Thursday due
to the deepening trough to the east. Moisture convergence along the
front paired with MUCAPE values of up to 1000 J/kg could result in
spotty showers and thunderstorms developing ahead of the front.
However, there are multiple mitigating factors. The atmosphere will
be still be dry in the low levels, so the chances of precipitation
forming is limited. Also, instability will be limited to what can be
realized through surface heating. There is still uncertainty among
the CAMs as to when precipitation will enter the region, if at all.
Models that depict an afternoon frontal passage have a greater
chance of precipitation than models that bring the front through
later because of the presence of instability. The most likely region
to experience any spot showers or thunderstorms will be northeast
Missouri and west-central Illinois. However, confidence in anything
occurring is too low to add mentionable PoPs to the grids at this


.LONG TERM...  (Friday through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Wed Aug 10 2022

By Friday, upper level ridging will still be in place over the
western CONUS with the trough deepening in the east. Heights will be
weakly rising in the Midwest as upper level high pressure centered
in eastern Colorado/western Kansas moves east across the Plains.
Closer to the surface, high pressure will build in behind Thursday
night`s frontal passage. Friday will see northeast flow from the
placement of the high, and temperatures and humidity values will
remain around if not several degrees below average.

The western extent of the upper ridge will extend into the CWA on
Saturday. The post-frontal high pressure system will move to the
east, placing the Midwest in south-southwest flow at 850 mb and the
surface. Temperatures Saturday will be warmer than those of Friday,
topping out in the low 80s in Illinois and the low 90s in central
Missouri where skies will be clearer.

The pattern begins to change on Sunday as the ridge aloft begins to
weaken. This will allow shortwaves to ride into our area within the
northwest flow aloft. However, the lower levels of the atmosphere
appear to remain dry through the day Sunday, so precipitation is not
expected. Ensembles support this as well, with guidance introducing
the precipitation on Monday.

Chances for showers and thunderstorms increase Monday and continue
into Tuesday as moisture and instability increase in the area and
shortwaves continue to impact the area. This far out in the
forecast, there is uncertainty regarding the timing and location of
the shortwaves, and thus the timing and location of rainfall. It
does appear that multiple waves of showers and thunderstorms are
possible during the early week due to the passage of multiple



.AVIATION...  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 550 PM CDT Wed Aug 10 2022

VFR flight conditions will continue through the entire TAF period. Diurnal
cu will diminish over the next few hours and clear skies will
dominate the region through the evening. Cooling temperatures
overnight, clear skies, and light winds will create favorable
conditions for fog development. Confidence in location and depth
of fog is low, so have left mention of this out of the TAFs for

Any fog that forms will dissipate during the morning, and VFR diurnal
cu will build back into the region late tomorrow morning through
the afternoon. Northeasterly winds will remain light through the






NWS LSX Office Area Forecast Discussion